Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Letting stops breatheWe talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.
Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.
ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.
Reasons to change a stopAs a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.
The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?
Entering and exiting winning positionsTake profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.
Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.
Entering positions with limit ordersThat covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.
Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.
Risk:reward and win ratiosBe extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.
A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.
Risk-adjusted returnsNot all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.
Sharpe ratioThe Sharpe ratio works like this:
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.
VARVAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.
A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.
Coming up in part IIIAvailable here
Squeezes and other risks
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
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TL;DR - I will try and flip an account from $50 or less to $1,000 over 2019. I will post all my account details so my strategy can be seen/copied. I will do this using only three or four trading setups. All of which are simple enough to learn. I will start trading on 10th January.submitted by inweedwetrust to Forex [link] [comments]
As I see it there are two mains ways to understand how to make money in the markets. The first is to know what the biggest winners in the markets are doing and duplicating what they do. This is hard. Most of the biggest players will not publicly tell people what they are doing. You need to be able to kinda slide in with them and see if you can pick up some info. Not suitable for most people, takes a lot of networking and even then you have to be able to make the correct inferences.
Another way is to know the most common trades of losing traders and then be on the other side of their common mistakes. This is usually far easier, usually everyone knows the mind of a losing trader. I learned about what losing traders do every day by being one of them for many years. I noticed I had an some sort of affinity for buying at the very top of moves and selling at the very bottom. This sucked, however, is was obvious there was winning trades on the other side of what I was doing and the adjustments to be a good trader were small (albeit, tricky).
Thus began the study for entries and maximum risk:reward. See, there have been times I have bought aiming for a 10 pip scalps and hit 100 pips stops loss. Hell, there have been times I was going for 5 pips and hit 100 stop out. This can seem discouraging, but it does mean there must be 1:10 risk:reward pay-off on the other side of these mistakes, and they were mistakes.
If you repeatedly enter and exit at the wrong times, you are making mistakes and probably the same ones over and over again. The market is tricking you! There are specific ways in which price moves that compel people to make these mistakes (I won’t go into this in this post, because it takes too long and this is going to be a long post anyway, but a lot of this is FOMO).
Making mistakes is okay. In fact, as I see it, making mistakes is an essential part of becoming an expert. Making a mistake enough times to understand intrinsically why it is a mistake and then make the required adjustments. Understanding at a deep level why you trade the way you do and why others make the mistakes they do, is an important part of becoming an expert in your chosen area of focus.
I could talk more on these concepts, but to keep the length of the post down, I will crack on to actual examples of trades I look for. Here are my three main criteria. I am looking for tops/bottoms of moves (edge entries). I am looking for 1:3 RR or more potential pay-offs. My strategy assumes that retail trades will lose most of the time. This seems a fair enough assumption. Without meaning to sound too crass about it, smart money will beat dumb money most of the time if the game is base on money. They just will.
So to summarize, I am looking for the points newbies get trapped in bad positions entering into moves too late. From these areas, I am looking for high RR entries.
I call this one the “Lightning Bolt correction”, but it is most commonly referred to as a “two leg correction”. I call it a “Lightning Bolt correction” because it looks a bit like one, and it zaps you. If you get it wrong.
Once I see price making the first sell-off move and then begin to rally towards the highs again, I am waiting for a washout spike low. The common trades mistakes I am trading against here is them being too eager to buy into the trend too early and for the to get stopped out/reverse position when it looks like it is making another bearish breakout. Right at that point they panic … literally one candle under there is where I want to be getting in. I want to be buying their stop loss, essentially. “Oh, you don’t want that ...okay, I will have that!”
I need a precise entry. I want to use tiny stops (for big RR) so I need to be cute with entries. For this, I need entry rules. Not just arbitrarily buying the spike out. There are a few moving parts to this that are outside the scope of this post but one of my mains ways is using a fibs extension and looking for reversals just after the 1.61% level. How to draw the fibs is something else that is outside the scope of this but for one simple rule, they can be drawn on the failed new high leg.
I am looking for a few specific things for a prime setup. Firstly, I am looking for the false hope candles, the ones that look like they will reverse the market and let those buying too early get out break-even or even at profit. In this case, you can see the hammer and engulfing candle off the 127 level, then it spikes low in that “stop-hunt” sort of style.
Secondly I want to see it trading just past my entry level (161 ext). This rule has come from nothing other than sheer volume. The amount of times I’ve been stopped out by 1 pip by that little sly final low has gave birth to this rule. I am looking for the market to trade under support in a manner that looks like a new strong breakout. When I see this, I am looking to get in with tiny stops, right under the lows. I will also be using smaller charts at this time and looking for reversal clusters of candles. Things like dojis, inverted hammers etc. These are great for sticking stops under.
Important note, when the lightning bolt correction fails to be a good entry, I expect to see another two legs down. I may look to sell into this area sometimes, and also be looking for buying on another couple legs down. It is important to note, though, when this does not work out, I expect there to be continued momentum that is enough to stop out and reasonable stop level for my entry. Which is why I want to cut quick. If a 10 pips stop will hit, usually a 30 pips stop will too. Bin it and look for the next opportunity at better RR.
Another setup I am watching for is harmonic patterns, and I am using these as a multi-purpose indicator. When I see potentially harmonic patterns forming, I am using their completion level as take profits, I do not want to try and run though reversal patterns I can see forming hours ahead of time. I also use them for entering (similar rules of looking for specific entry criteria for small stops). Finally, I use them as a continuation pattern. If the harmonic pattern runs past the area it may have reversed from, there is a high probability that the market will continue to trend and very basic trend following strategies work well. I learned this from being too stubborn sticking with what I thought were harmonic reversals only to be ran over by a trend (seriously, everything I know I know from how it used to make me lose).
A method of spotting these sorts of M/W harmonics is they tend to form after a second spike out leg never formed. When this happens, it gives me a really good idea of where my profit targets should be and where my next big breakout level is. It is worth noting, larger harmonics using have small harmonics inside them (on lower time-frames) and this can be used for dialling in optimum entries. I also use harmonics far more extensively in ranging markets. Where they tend to have higher win rates.
Next setup is the good old fashioned double bottoms/double top/one tick trap sort of setup. This comes in when the market is highly over extended. It has a small sell-off and rallies back to the highs before having a much larger sell-off. This is a more risky trade in that it sells into what looks like trending momentum and can be stopped out more. However, it also pays a high RR when it works, allowing for it to be ran at reduced risk and still be highly profitable when it comes through.
From these sorts of moves, I am always looking for a follow up buy if it forms a lightning bolt sort of setup.
All of these setups always offer 1:3 or better RR. If they do not, you are doing it wrong (and it will be your stop placement that is wrong). This is not to say the target is always 1:3+, sometimes it is best to lock in profits with training stops. It just means that every time you enter, you can potentially have a trade that runs for many times more than you risked. 1:10 RR can be hit in these sorts of setups sometimes. Paying you 20% for 2% risked.
I want to really stress here that what I am doing is trading against small traders mistakes. I am not trying to “beat the market maker”. I am not trying to reverse engineer J.P Morgan’s black boxes. I do not think I am smart enough to gain a worthwhile edge over these traders. They have more money, they have more data, they have better softwares … they are stronger. Me trying to “beat the market maker” is like me trying to beat up Mike Tyson. I might be able to kick him in the balls and feel smug for a few seconds. However, when he gets up, he is still Tyson and I am still me. I am still going to be pummeled.
I’ve seen some people that were fairly bright people going into training courses and coming out dumb as shit. Thinking they somehow are now going to dominate Goldman Sachs because they learned a chart pattern. Get a grip. For real, get a fucking grip. These buzz phrases are marketeering. Realististically, if you want to win in the markets, you need to have an edge over somebody.
I don’t have edges on the banks. If I could find one, they’d take it away from me. Edges work on inefficiencies in what others do that you can spot and they can not. I do not expect to out-think a banks analysis team. I know for damn sure I can out-think a version of me from 5 years ago … and I know there are enough of them in the markets. I look to trade against them. I just look to protect myself from the larger players so they can only hurt me in limited ways. Rather than letting them corner me and beat me to a pulp (in the form of me watching $1,000 drop off my equity because I moved a stop or something), I just let them kick me in the butt as I run away. It hurts a little, but I will be over it soon.
I believe using these principles, these three simple enough edge entry setups, selectiveness (remembering you are trading against the areas people make mistakes, wait for they areas) and measured aggression a person can make impressive compounded gains over a year. I will attempt to demonstrate this by taking an account of under $100 to over $1,000 in a year. I will use max 10% on risk on a position, the risk will scale down as the account size increases. In most cases, 5% risk per trade will be used, so I will be going for 10-20% or so profits. I will be looking only for prime opportunities, so few trades but hard hitting ones when I take them.
I will start trading around the 10th January. Set remind me if you want to follow along. I will also post my investor login details, so you can see the trades in my account in real time. Letting you see when I place my orders and how I manage running positions.
I also think these same principles can be tweaked in such a way it is possible to flip $50 or so into $1,000 in under a month. I’ve done $10 to $1,000 in three days before. This is far more complex in trade management, though. Making it hard to explain/understand and un-viable for many people to copy (it hedges, does not comply with FIFO, needs 1:500 leverage and also needs spreads under half a pip on EURUSD - not everyone can access all they things). I see all too often people act as if this can’t be done and everyone saying it is lying to sell you something. I do not sell signals. I do not sell training. I have no dog in this fight, I am just saying it can be done. There are people who do it. If you dismiss it as impossible; you will never be one of them.
If I try this 10 times with $50, I probably am more likely to make $1,000 ($500 profit) in a couple months than standard ideas would double $500 - I think I have better RR, even though I may go bust 5 or more times. I may also try to demonstrate this, but it is kinda just show-boating, quite honestly. When it works, it looks cool. When it does not, I can go bust in a single day (see example https://www.fxblue.com/users/redditmicroflip).
So I may or may not try and demonstrate this. All this is, is just taking good basic concepts and applying accelerated risk tactics to them and hitting a winning streak (of far less trades than you may think). Once you have good entries and RR optimization in place - there really is no reason why you can not scale these up to do what may people call impossible (without even trying it).
I know there are a lot of people who do not think these things are possible and tend to just troll whenever people talk about these things. There used to be a time when I’d try to explain why I thought the way I did … before I noticed they only cared about telling me why they were right and discussion was pointless. Therefore, when it comes to replies, I will reply to all comments that ask me a question regarding why I think this can be done, or why I done something that I done. If you are commenting just to tell me all the reasons you think I am wrong and you are right, I will probably not reply. I may well consider your points if they are good ones. I just do not entering into discussions with people who already know everything; it serves no purpose.
I want to talk a bit more about using higher percentage of risk than usual. Firstly, let me say that there are good reasons for risk caps that people often cite as “musts”. There are reasons why 2% is considered optimum for a lot of strategies and there are reasons drawing down too much is a really bad thing.
Please do not be ignorant of this. Please do not assume I am, either. In previous work I done, I was selecting trading strategies that could be used for investment. When doing this, my only concern was drawdown metrics. These are essential for professional money management and they are also essential for personal long-term success in trading.
So please do not think I have not thought of these sorts of things Many of the reasons people say these things can’t work are basic 101 stuff anyone even remotely committed to learning about trading learns in their first 6 months. Trust me, I have thought about these concepts. I just never stopped thinking when I found out what public consensus was.
While these 101 rules make a lot of sense, it does not take away from the fact there are other betting strategies, and if you can know the approximate win rate and pay-off of trades, you can have other ways of deriving optimal bet sizes (risk per trade). Using Kelly Criterion, for example, if the pay-off is 1:3 and there is a 75% chance of winning, the optimal bet size is 62.5%. It would be a viable (high risk) strategy to have extremely filtered conditions that looked for just one perfect set up a month, makingover 150% if it was successful.
Let’s do some math on if you can pull that off three months in a row (using 150% gain, for easy math). Start $100. Month two starts $250. Month three $625. Month three ends $1,562. You have won three trades. Can you win three trades in a row under these conditions? I don’t know … but don’t assume no-one can.
This is extremely high risk, let’s scale it down to meet somewhere in the middle of the extremes. Let’s look at 10%. Same thing, 10% risk looking for ideal opportunities. Maybe trading once every week or so. 30% pay-off is you win. Let’s be realistic here, a lot of strategies can drawdown 10% using low risk without actually having had that good a chance to generate 30% gains in the trades it took to do so. It could be argued that trading seldomly but taking 5* the risk your “supposed” to take can be more risk efficient than many strategies people are using.
I am not saying that you should be doing these things with tens of thousands of dollars. I am not saying you should do these things as long term strategies. What I am saying is do not dismiss things out of hand just because they buck the “common knowns”. There are ways you can use more aggressive trading tactics to turn small sums of money into they $1,000s of dollars accounts that you exercise they stringent money management tactics on.
With all the above being said, you do have to actually understand to what extent you have an edge doing what you are doing. To do this, you should be using standard sorts of risks. Get the basics in place, just do not think you have to always be basic. Once you have good basics in place and actually make a bit of money, you can section off profits for higher risk versions of strategies. The basic concepts of money management are golden. For longevity and large funds; learned them and use them! Just don’t forget to think for yourself once you have done that.
Okay, I have thought this through a bit more and decided I don't want to post my live account investor login, because it has my full name and I do not know who any of you are. Instead, for copying/observing, I will give demo account login (since I can choose any name for a demo).
I will also copy onto a live account and have that tracked via Myfxbook.
I will do two versions. One will be FIFO compliant. It will trade only single trade positions. The other will not be FIFO compliant, it will open trades in batches. I will link up live account in a week or so. For now, if anyone wants to do BETA testing with the copy trader, you can do so with the following details (this is the non-FIFO compliant version).
Account tracking/copying details.
IC Markets MT4
Account number: 10307003
Investor PW: lGdMaRe6
(Not FIFO compliant)
Valid and Invalid Complaints.
There are a few things that can pop up in copy trading. I am not a n00b when it comes to this, so I can somewhat forecast what these will be. I can kinda predict what sort of comments there may be. Some of these are valid points that if you raise I should (and will) reply to. Some are things outside of the scope of things I can influence, and as such, there is no point in me replying to. I will just cover them all here the one time.
Valid complains are if I do something dumb or dramatically outside of the strategy I have laid out here. won't do these, if I do, you can pitchfork ----E
“Oi, idiot! You opened a trade randomly on a news spike. I got slipped 20 pips and it was a shit entry”.
Perfectly valid complaint.
“Why did you open a trade during swaps hours when the spread was 30 pips?”
“You left huge trades open running into the weekend and now I have serious gap paranoia!”
These are examples of me doing dumb stuff. If I do dumb stuff, it is fair enough people say things amounting to “Yo, that was dumb stuff”.
“You bought EURUSD when it was clearly a sell!!!!”
Okay … you sell. No-one is asking you to copy my trades. I am not trading your strategy. Different positions make a market.
“You opened a position too big and I lost X%”.
No. Na uh. You copied a position too big. If you are using a trade copier, you can set maximum risk. If you neglect to do this, you are taking 100% risk. You have no valid compliant for losing. The act of copying and setting the risk settings is you selecting your risk. I am not responsible for your risk. I accept absolutely no liability for any losses.
*Suggested fix. Refer to risk control in copy trading software
“You lost X trades in a row at X% so I lost too much”.
Nope. You copied. See above. Anything relating to losing too much in trades (placed in liquid/standard market conditions) is entirely you. I can lose my money. Only you can set it up so you can lose yours. I do not have access to your account. Only mine.
*Suggested fix. Refer to risk control in copy trading software
“Price keeps trading close to the pending limit orders but not filling. Your account shows profits, but mine is not getting them”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
* Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Buy limit orders will need to move up a little. Sell limit orders should not need adjusted.
“I got stopped out right before the market turned, I have a loss but your account shows a profit”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
** Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Stop losses on sell orders will need to move up a bit. Stops on buy orders will be fine.
“Your trade got stopped out right before the market turned, if it was one more pip in the stop, it would have been a winner!!!”
Yeah. This happens. This is where the “risk” part of “risk:reward” comes in.
“Price traded close to take profit, yours filled but mines never”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
(Side note, this should not be an issue since when my trade closes, it should ping your account to close, too. You might get a couple less pips).
*** Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Take profits on buys will need to move up a bit. Sell take profits will be fine.
“My brokers spread jumped to 20 during the New York session so the open trade made a bigger loss than it should”.
Your broker might just suck if this happens. This is brokerage. I have no control over this. My trades are placed to profit from my brokerage conditions. I do not know, so can not account for yours. Also, if accounting for random spread spikes like this was something I had to do, this strategy would not be a thing. It only works with fair brokerage conditions.
*Suggested fix. Do a bit of Googling and find out if you have a horrific broker. If so, fix that! A good search phrase is; “(Broker name) FPA reviews”.
“Price hit the stop loss but was going really fast and my stop got slipped X pips”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
If my trade also got slipped on the stop, I was slipped using ECN conditions with excellent execution; sometimes slips just happen. I am doing the most I can to prevent them, but it is a fact of liquidity that sometimes we get slipped (slippage can also work in our favor, paying us more than the take profit would have been).
“Orders you placed failed to execute on my account because they were too large”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. Margin requirements vary. I have 1:500 leverage available. I will not always be using it, but I can. If you can’t, this will make a difference.
“Your account is making profits trading things my broker does not have”
I have a full range of assets to trade with the broker I use. Included Forex, indices, commodities and cryptocurrencies. I may or may not use the extent of these options. I can not account for your brokerage conditions.
I think I have covered most of the common ones here. There are some general rules of thumb, though. Basically, if I do something that is dumb and would have a high probability of losing on any broker traded on, this is a valid complain.
Anything that pertains to risk taken in standard trading conditions is under your control.
Also, anything at all that pertains to brokerage variance there is nothing I can do, other than fully brief you on what to expect up-front. Since I am taking the time to do this, I won’t be a punchbag for anything that happens later pertaining to this.
I am not using an elitist broker. You don’t need $50,000 to open an account, it is only $200. It is accessible to most people - brokerage conditions akin to what I am using are absolutely available to anyone in the UK/Europe/Asia (North America, I am not so up on, so can’t say). With the broker I use, and with others. If you do not take the time to make sure you are trading with a good broker, there is nothing I can do about how that affects your trades.
I am using an A book broker, if you are using B book; it will almost certainly be worse results. You have bad costs. You are essentially buying from reseller and paying a mark-up. (A/B book AKA ECN/Market maker; learn about this here). My EURUSD spread will typically be 0.02 pips or so, if yours is 1 pip, this is a huge difference.
These are typical spreads I am working on.
Check the full range of spreads on Forex, commodities, indices and crypto.
Please understand I want nothing from you if you benefit from this, but I am also due you nothing if you lose. My only term of offering this is that people do not moan at me if they lose money.
I have been fully upfront saying this is geared towards higher risk. I have provided information and tools for you to take control over this. If I do lose people’s money and I know that, I honestly will feel a bit sad about it. However, if you complain about it, all I will say is “I told you that might happen”, because, I am telling you that might happen.
Make clear headed assessments of how much money you can afford to risk, and use these when making your decisions. They are yours to make, and not my responsibility.
Crazy Kelly Compounding: $100 - $11,000 in 6 Trades.
$100 to $11,000 in 6 trades? Is it a scam? Is it a gamble? … No, it’s maths.
Common sense risk disclaimer: Don’t be a dick! Don’t risk money you can’t afford to lose. Do not risk money doing these things until you can show a regular profit on low risk.
Let’s talk about Crazy Kelly Compounding (CKC). Kelly criterion is a method for selecting optimal bet sizes if the odds and win rate are known (in other words, once you have worked out how to create and assess your edge). You can Google to learn about it in detail. The formula for Kelly criterion is;
((odds-1) * (percentage estimate)) - (1-percent estimate) / (odds-1) X 100
Now let’s say you can filter down a strategy to have a 80% win rate. It trades very rarely, but it had a very high success rate when it does. Let’s say you get 1:2 RR on that trade. Kelly would give you an optimum bet size of about 60% here. So if you win, you win 120%. Losing three trades in a row will bust you. You can still recover from anything less than that, fairly easily with a couple winning trades.
This is where CKC comes in. What if you could string some of these wins together, compounding the gains (so you were risking 60% each time)? What if you could pull off 6 trades in a row doing this?
Here is the math;
This shows years, substitute years for trades. 6 trades returns $11,338! This can be done. The question really is if you are able to dial in good enough entries, filter out enough sub-par trades and have the guts to pull the trigger when the time is right. Obviously you need to be willing to take the hit, obviously that hit gets bigger each time you go for it, but the reward to risk ratio is pretty decent if you can afford to lose the money.
We could maybe set something up to do this on cent brokers. So people can do it literally risking a couple dollars. I’d have to check to see if there was suitable spreads etc offered on them, though. They can be kinda icky.
Now listen, I am serious … don’t be a dick. Don’t rush out next week trying to retire by the weekend. What I am showing you is the EXTRA rewards that come with being able to produce good solid results and being able to section off some money for high risk “all or nothing” attempts; using your proven strategies.
I am not saying anyone can open 6 trades and make $11,000 … that is rather improbable. What I am saying is once you can get the strategy side right, and you can know your numbers; then you can use the numbers to see where the limits actually are, how fast your strategy can really go.
This CKC concept is not intended to inspire you to be reckless in trading, it is intended to inspire you to put focus on learning the core skills I am telling you that are behind being able to do this.
(This post is mainly for beginners in Forex that are struggling in support and resistance levels, although you more experienced guys might also learn a thing or two, this also doesn't go over how to use them to enter trades, although I could make a post about it if it is requested)submitted by indicasFinest to Forex [link] [comments]
How to correctly mark support & resistance in most marketsFirst thing to realise is that s&r levels are not really levels, they are zones, sometimes the price just misses the level and other times it goes just over, but it still reverses/breaks out off the general level. You will rarely find the exact level of where the price will reverse. There is no exact criteria on what makes a level significant levels, but you will eventually get better as you pipe in more experience into the market.
What even is a support/resistance zone?
Simply put a support or resistance zone is a price the market has had experience with before. In the book "Naked Forex" Alex Nekritin puts perfectly that s/r zones are just market scars. Market scars that the price has visited before and will try to stay away from as best as it can (but sometimes breakouts occur, more on that later).
Do zones expire?
This is very subjective, some say the older the level the less valid it may be, and others vice versa. I personally believe they don't expire and significant zones stay valid unless disapproved by appropriate price action. Your answer may be completely different, everyone's experience with the market is different
What are these "breakouts"?
Breakouts are when the price doesn't respect the level. Most of the time the price respects a level and reverses off it, however that can only happen for some time, (if this happens for a period of time where the price is bouncing off a support and resistance it is known as consolidation). Of course it can't keep trading in a range forever, breakouts have to happen. Breakouts mostly happen within high volatility, either from news or just the time the market is open, however the price can also just wonder through the zone, creating a less volatile breakout. You may also experience the price going over a zone and then returning into it;
On chart 1 below you can see a bland chart, just load up any trading software and you should see something like this. We can see the price recently has been on a decline on the last four candles.
EURUSD H1 (Chart 1)
To the untrained trader, this looks like guess work to place a good significant level. Wicks flying everywhere, this is where tip #1 comes in.
Tip #1: Change your candlestick chart into a line graph
EURUSD H1 (Chart 2)
This very simple tool removes all of the wick clutter and just gives a nice line of how the price has been moving (Keep in mind this only shows the close of the time frame and doesn't include wicks). Thus it makes marking s/r lines way way easier. Just off this you can place lines where the price has reversed, don't add too many as that could also be too bad for you (check tip #2)
Another thing to keep in mind is that if a price curves and reverses, this usually shows a stall on the zone and is an important level to manage. (Check Chart 3)
On Chart 3 you can see some levels I've added in that respond to the recent price on the line chart:
EURUSD H1 With S/R (Chart 3)
After you've added your s/r you can switch back to normal candle sticks to further evaluate your zones.
EURUSD H1 With S/R Candlesticks (Chart 4)
Tip #2: Don't over-add unnecessary levels
This mostly occurs if you don't have patience with the market and want to rush into a trade. Don't try and scavenge for any little s/r zone as they could easily end up failing if they haven't been tested and confirmed. It will also prevent you from finding any valuable trades.
You don't want your chart looking like this, where would you even start looking for an entry?
Jumble of messy lines
Tip #3: Draw major zones on higher time frames
Say you enter your trades mostly on H4, draw your major zones on the D1 chart. As well as this you can draw minor zones in time frames smaller than your usual one, like from H4 to H1.
Just a little tip you could keep in mind.
Those are just three tips that really help me out when drawing my s&r zones (they might not work out for you but it's worth giving them a shot) and I have tried making this post as beginner friendly as possible, so I really hope you all learned something from this post.
This post was heavily inspired by Naked Forex, you can find a PDF of it here
Job growth has remained vibrant despite the slow-growing economy,and that's a trend investors are anxious to see confirmed in the February employment report on Friday.
Even with some economists expecting growth around 1 percent for the first quarter, the labor market has been strong, and economists expect to see 185,000 jobs added in February. The economy is widely expected to bounce back in the second quarter to a pace well above 2 percent, after the temporary headwinds from the government shutdown and polar vortex abate.
The jobs data tops the list of important economic news in the week ahead, particularly after a string of disappointing reports showing that both consumers and businesses have pulled back.
The stock market will pass a major milestone on Wednesday—the tenth anniversary of the day the market bottomed in 2009, when the S&P 500 hit 666. The S&P has gained more than 312 percent since that low of the financial crisis, and some analysts see the bull market continuing for at least another year.
"We think there's further upside for this bull market to go. The age of the bull does not matter. What really matters is how healthy it is," said Patrick Palfrey, U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse. "Whatever the concerns, around trade tariffs, or decelerating corporate profits, we believe this bull market remains very healthy."
The S&P 500 is taking aim at the 2,800 level, an important milestone that it has struggled to surpass in the past week. The 2,800 marker was an important level for the stock market four times in past several months, and holding above it could signal the rally could drive stocks to fresh highs.
Palfrey said investors first and foremost are looking at any information that can help them gauge how the economy is doing. "We're looking for confirmation in the jobs report. We think the economy is doing okay. Labor participation is improving. We're going to see that continuing to inch back up," he said.
The Citigroup economic surprise index fell to a new 18-month low Friday, following a recent rash of disappointing reports. When economic reports come in below economists' expectations, the surprise index falls and a low number for the index is reflecting the economic slowdown.
Goldman Sachs economists Friday said they were expecting first quarter growth of just 0.9 percent, but they raised second quarter growth to 2.9 percent.
New home salesIn addition to the jobs report, there is the Fed's beige book on the economy Wednesday and new home sales Tuesday. But after delayed and weaker data, it's the jobs report that matters most. The employment report is one data point that has been released as normal through the shutdown, and in the January data, there was a huge upside surprise of 304,000 nonfarm payrolls.
"All eyes are on the job market. If businesses lose faith and they stop hiring, and job growth starts slowing, then we do have problems," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Economists expect wages to rise by 0.3 percent and unemployment to fall a tenth to 3.9 percent, according to Refinitiv.
"I think companies should stay steadfast in their hiring," Zandi said. He expects job growth of about 200,000 but notes there could be a payback for the huge amount of hires in January.
"I think the economy is fragile, growth is below trend. It's very vulnerable. The only thing that will keep it together is if businesses keep hiring and the job market holds up, and I think it will unless the president doesn't settle with the Chinese on trade, or there's a hard Brexit or some other geopolitical event," said Zandi.
The Federal Reserve has paused in its interest rate hiking because of the slowing economy and concerns about financial conditions. But the Fed could move forward on rates again, if inflation begins to pick up, and for that reason the wage data in the jobs report would also be key were it to show new wage pressures.
There are a few speeches by Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who speaks at Stanford University Friday night at an economic conference.
Market focus will also be on the European Central Bank which meets Thursday.
"I think people are expecting some detail about a long-term loan operation," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. The ECB is expected to allow European banks to extend the duration of some short-term loans. Chandler said the ECB could also push back on its time frame on raising interest rates, which it has said would not be until after the summer.
Over the recent 21 years March has been a solid performing month for the market. Average gains over the period range from a low of 1.29% by NASDAQ to a respectable 2.0% by Russell 2000. March has also been the #1 performing month by average performance for S&P 500 and Russell 2000 over the last 21 years. First trading day of March gains typically kick of the month, followed by choppy to slightly higher trading until around the tenth or eleventh trading day when the market tends to surge higher until around the fifteenth trading day. At this point the market tends to cool and can succumb to some end-of-quarter selling pressure.
Now that the 4th quarter market debacle is behind us and solid gains have been logged in 2019 year-to-date we have taken a deeper dive into market action following Q4 losses for the three main U.S. market indices. DJIA and S&P 500 have been solid over the next for the next four quarters and the next year when Q1 is positive, but also good following all but three subsequent Q1 losses. On average up about 80% of the time for the full year with average gains around 8%. NASDAQ’s record is choppier.
Monday 3.4.19 Before Market Open:
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Tuesday 3.5.19 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 3.5.19 After Market Close:
Wednesday 3.6.19 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 3.6.19 After Market Close:
Thursday 3.7.19 Before Market Open:
Thursday 3.7.19 After Market Close:
Friday 3.8.19 Before Market Open:
Friday 3.8.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())NONE.
Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, March 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.55 per share on revenue of $3.56 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.54 to $0.55 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 48.65% with revenue increasing by 24.87%. Short interest has increased by 18.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 18.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.4% above its 200 day moving average of $142.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 27, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,030 contracts of the $165.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.
NIO Inc. (NIO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 AM ET on Tuesday, March 5, 2019. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $418.00 million to $436.00 million. The stock has drifted higher by 39.3% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, February 25, 2019 there was some notable buying of 40,151 contracts of the $9.00 call expiring on Friday, March 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 11.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.
Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, March 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.53 per share on revenue of $23.15 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.55 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.68% with revenue increasing by 1.69%. Short interest has decreased by 7.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.5% below its 200 day moving average of $77.16. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 43,529 contracts of the $80.00 call expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.
Weibo Corporation (WB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 AM ET on Tuesday, March 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $481.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $480.00 million to $490.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 19.05% with revenue increasing by 27.58%. Short interest has increased by 20.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.0% below its 200 day moving average of $73.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,610 contracts of the $75.00 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters.
Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, March 7, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $58.78 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.05) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 44.44% with revenue increasing by 84.42%. Short interest has increased by 6.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.6% below its 200 day moving average of $2.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 20.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.0% move in recent quarters.
Kohl's Corporation (KSS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, March 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.17 per share on revenue of $6.79 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 16.04% with revenue increasing by 0.21%. Short interest has decreased by 12.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.3% below its 200 day moving average of $71.15. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 27, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,138 contracts of the $75.00 put expiring on Friday, March 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.0% move in recent quarters.
Magic Software Enterprises, Ltd. (MGIC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Monday, March 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.14 per share on revenue of $73.75 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 27.27% with revenue increasing by 11.59%. Short interest has decreased by 80.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release.
YY Inc. (YY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:30 PM ET on Monday, March 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.86 per share on revenue of $641.65 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.91 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $630.00 million to $652.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.53% with revenue increasing by 15.12%. Short interest has decreased by 13.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.4% below its 200 day moving average of $79.10. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,504 contracts of the $75.00 call expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.9% move in recent quarters.
Ciena Corporation (CIEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, March 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.30 per share on revenue of $757.37 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $745.00 million to $775.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 130.77% with revenue increasing by 17.22%. Short interest has decreased by 7.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.2% above its 200 day moving average of $30.72. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, March 1, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,235 contracts of the $28.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.0% move in recent quarters.
Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:45 AM ET on Monday, March 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $177.22 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 35.71% with revenue increasing by 18.52%. Short interest has increased by 27.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 24.1% above its 200 day moving average of $60.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 2.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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